New collaboration shows average equity gain in the Australian Government’s Home Guarantee Scheme is around $82,000

The analysis shows that despite average dwelling prices falling for much of last year, the equity positions of the Home Guarantee Scheme (HGS or Scheme) first home buyers appear to be growing in line with long run averages, with the average equity gain of each HGS guarantee estimated to be around $82,000 since 2020. The deposits of home buyers under the HGS remain unchanged while deposits paid by the broader first home buyer market have increased by almost 50% since 2020.    

This analysis looks at first home buyer data from the Scheme relative to broader first home buyer data for the period from 1 January 2020 to 31 May 2023.

Some of the key insights include:

• The HGS continues to support people on modest incomes with the average annual household income of HGS participants being $108,000 compared with $117,000 for the broader first home buyer market.
• Average deposit amounts paid by first home buyers in the HGS has increased marginally from $35,200 to $36,400 since 2020 compared with the broader first home buyer market where average deposits rose by almost 50% from $108,400 to $159,000. This may indicate that first home buyer savings are being supplemented by other sources.
• HGS participants tended to take out a smaller loan relative to income compared with the broader first home buyer market. The average loan amount under HGS has increased 4.7% since 2020 while the average loan for the broader first home buyer market increased by 13.4%.
• The HGS continues to support more women as a proportion of single borrowers relative to the broader first home buyer market (54% under HGS compared with 47% broader first home buyer market), particularly those that are single with dependents under the Family Home Guarantee (80%).
• Analysis suggests that on average, HGS participants continue to see the equity in their home grow broadly in line with long run price increases, despite the broader market declines last year. The average equity gain per HGS guarantee is estimated to be around $82,000.
• Additional NHFIC analysis suggests that price falls in the HGS segment at the lower end of the market (between 20th and 30th percentiles) were modest at 1-2% compared with 5-8% falls for the broader housing market.

NHFIC Head of Research Hugh Hartigan said, “Despite the challenging interest rate environment and dwelling price falls last year, it is encouraging that the (average) equity position of Home Guarantee Scheme participants appears to be holding up. It is also interesting that deposits for first home buyers outside of the HGS have risen so strongly, which may indicate they have other ways of supplementing their savings.”   

NHFIC Chief Program Officer Home Ownership Jennifer Chew said, “NHFIC is proud to work collaboratively with major banks to further understand the value of the Home Guarantee Scheme. This research demonstrates the benefits of the HGS in helping more Australians into homes. We are proud to have helped over 100,000 people into homes, and with the recent expansions to the eligibility criteria and Participating Lender panel, we hope to continue to help many more.”

The Home Guarantee Scheme is administered by the National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation (NHFIC) and is available to eligible home buyers through 33 Participating Lenders. The Scheme is administered on behalf of the Australian Government and includes the First Home Guarantee (FHBG), Regional First Home Buyer Guarantee (RFHBG), and the Family Home Guarantee (FHG).

For more information on the Scheme, contact a Participating Lender or visit the NHFIC website

For more information on the NHFIC and CBA research collaboration, please view the report at nhfic.gov.au/research/first-home-buyer-insights-collaboration-cba

Disclaimer  

These results are subject to change as rents, house prices, interest rates and incomes fluctuate in the future. NHFIC will continue to work with major banks on its Participating Lender Panel on tracking these first home buyer cohorts over time and will release further data insights periodically.